The US options toward Syria

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems that the movement coincided with the massacre of Khan Shikhoun which was implemented by the chemical weapons is at its best conditions from Ankara. Washington does not seem ready to move in any direction as much as it seems to be the captive of the reckless reactions rather than the outcomes of the vision of how to behave between two clear approaches, one is led by Russia calls to resort to fair non-politicized investigation in which everyone participates especially the major countries and to bear the responsibility to act together according to the results of investigation, but after taking into consideration the two circulated narrations, the narration that accuses the Syrian country and the narration that acquits it, and the second approach  is led by the countries of the war on Syria including the allies of Washington, its security organization, and some assistants who are interested in giving Trump  the image of an effete president in confronting the accusations which faced before the former President Barack Obama after his retreating from the military strike on Syria in a similar situation.

Till now Trump’s administration seems under the influence of the populist demagoguery, the arrogant rhetoric, threatening of military strikes, and neglecting the Russian calls for agreed international investigation under appropriate conditions. Trump put all his associates and ministers around him to discuss the options, but he collided with the most complex option than Obama’s who had decided to do the same away from any call for a fair non –politicized investigation proposed by Moscow on that day too. Today Trump can return to the records dedicated to the administration from his position as President to know that Obama’s regression from the military attack was not out of weakness but was under the pressure of unbreakable equation, the willingness of Russia to confront, knowing that Russia has not positioned as it does today  in Syria, this means that the Russian knot today is stronger than yesterday and that Trump will find himself in front of the most difficult complicated challenge than that faced by Obama, so how will he act?

To go to a confrontation with Russia and Iran and to arouse a world war is over the capacity of Trump and America; if it was so then the situation would be better for George W Bush to do when the situations were much better than today, the regression is a matter of calculations carried out by the military and the security organizations. Moreover the work under the ceiling of avoiding the collision with Russia on one hand, and the avoidance of the comprehensive bombing of the Middle East on the other hand is what Trump should choose, this has happened in the era of Obama who found that the negotiation with Russia to have a political gain that face-saving by withdrawing his fleets from the Mediterranean Sea was the most appropriate, and thus the political solution for the chemical weapons was, so what is the formula that will be found by Trump and which will meet his need to emerge as a strong president taking into account the ruling equations of power?

It seems that the way is not so clear, because on one hand there will be a tendency to Moscow to discuss the common options or the sidelines of the individual response of each team but in coordination and consultation. Trump’s team will try as Obama’s team tried to test if there are any Russian concessions of the option of the opened support to Syria, and they will reach to the same result, and on the other hand, there will be a return to the project of the safe zone and the thinking of Raqqa as a title, therefore they hasten to the battle of Raqqa where Trump gets more options to wage it and where the Turks, the Israelis, and the Saudis bet on employing this battle as a starting point to continue the war against the Syrian country.

In the Security Council there will be a mandatory passage for the investigation and the time will be available to calm down the pressures, and those who wanted to distort the image of Trump will feel that they missed the opportunity, and the talk will be on one hand about the need for the investigation accompanied with the UN cover for any work, and on the other hand it will be for making every effort for the US-Russian cooperation, so the battle of Raqqa will have a glow as the US Secretary of State Ricky Tillerson said.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,