They wanted to provoke Iran ……. But they found Turkey

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Officially Turkey is still a member in the NATO which is led by Washington, and which does not include any of the Gulf countries which announced the war on Qatar. Officially Ankara announced that it has a relation with Doha through a military cooperation agreement that is similar to the one which associates Doha with Washington and which is based on the US base Aladid in Qatar. So similarly Turkey will put a parallel base for its forces. Officially the Kuwaiti mediation fell as the US efforts which remained in media. Doha announces that it refuses the guardianship and that it is able to coexist with the Saudi diplomatic and economic punishment, since the commercial supply line across Iran is enough.

What was planned for the file of the relation with Qatar was based on two axes the economic isolation towards the bankruptcy, and the military geographic confinement with the indication to the choices of discipline through the coup which will be used as a pretext for the invasion and the occupation. The leaders of the war made use of every necessary reinforcement elements of the US position which was present due to the Saudi loyalty and the readiness to move without limits or conditions in the relation with Israel in order to discipline Qatar, along with five hundred billion dollars. The Saudis made use of their relations and money to earn more of the participants in the boycotting from the Comoros to Djibouti and the Maldives, but the media and the political gatherings are approaching their ceiling, so the question becomes about the next step in case Qatar does not surrender.

The terrorist attacks in Tehran which coincided with the Qatari crisis were public provocation by Washington and Riyadh, and an attempt to affect the Iranian dignity in way that provoked it hoping that any coming confrontation will be under Gulf-Iranian title, in a way that gives Washington the justification to show its strength, but at the same time it does not go to the difficult ends, but it stops at the limits of imposing Saudi dominance map in the Gulf that starts from Qatar. If Tehran avoided responding to the provocation, then Qatar would be easily controlled, but Iran keeps its calmness and the steadfastness in the fronts’ confrontation regarding the race with America to the borders between Syria and Iraq, and Turkey activated its military agreement with Qatar, and suggested to intervene if Qatar is exposed to danger.

For the second time, the considerations of Mohammed Bin Salman lost, in the war of Yemen Bin Salman based his considerations on winning in this war within few weeks, but years have passed and he is still stuck in the swamp, and now after he lost five hundred billion dollars he fell in a new swamp. If he takes a risk militarily he will find the Turks in front of him not the Iranians, and if he stops in the middle his impasse will aggravate, and the small Emirate will prove its ability to withstand and challenge the royal will, and instead of showing it as an example for everyone who disobeys Saudi Arabia it will turn into an example to rely on by the opponents of Saudi Arabia in the Gulf from Bahrain to Yemen and an example of how to challenge Saudi Arabia and thus the fall of the solemnity which its industry has cost a lot of money.

The disaster will affect Bin Salman if Doha and Ankara along with the risks of the existential challenge which are considered by the US tendency  which based on measuring the security of Israel and which is committed by Saudi Arabia move to position in the Iranian-Russian alliance, after it became clear that the choice starts and ends in Syria between two projects one wants to prolong and manage the chaos from a bilateral gate ISIS and the Kurds forces, and the other wants to go to settlement that rebuilds the Syrian unity from the gate of Astana.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,