Was Lavrov felicitous: Syria was about to fall without our intervention?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

No one can discuss the magnitude of the impact resulting from the Russian intervention in the war in Syria and what was achieved by this historic strategic decision during fifteen months either on Syria or on Russia or on the world,  its balances, and its coming equations.as no one can accept the idea that Russia was maneuvering when it said at the spokesman of its Foreign Minister repeatedly that it has come to defend its national security from Damascus, because some of the terrorism which came to fight in Syria and to be rooted in it descended from Chechen, Kyrgyz, and Oozbkih origins that are integrating with the Russian security in multiple ways, as no one can deprive Russia from its right of boasting of its role in the great achievement and the transition which was caused by the war in Syria, and the opposite shift caused by this war due to the Russian role in the region and the world.

Discussing the speech of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “without our intervention the regime in Syria was about to fall during two weeks or three” was expressed from two perspectives. First, its validity and conformity with the reality. Second, the extent of its suitability to the position of Russia, its role, and the type of its relation with its allies. Originally Russia is a conservative country diplomatically, it is aware of its precision in its diplomatic words ad their expression honestly about the facts that are indisputable and they are not a result of a moment of emotion. Originally Russia is a county that is keen on presenting its foreign policy according to the standards of the respect of the sovereignty of the countries legally and morally, at their forefronts the sense of the national dignity, vigor and pride, the refusal of any suggestion of trusteeship, disregarding of the sovereign principles of any county. So how if it is a country that provided as the Russian officials said repeatedly high cost on the behalf of all the countries of the world in confronting the danger of the terrorism which was brought by major countries and has cost billions of dollars and tens thousands of fighters according to the Russian speech that is provided with proofs and documents. Despite its steadfastness, the terrorism was about to target all the capitals of the entire world from Washington to Paris to London and Moscow as the Russian President and the Russian Foreign Minister said repeatedly. And how if the concerned country was an ally that wants to have an alliance with Russia to the extent that surpasses what the alliance of Russia has reached to an alliance with a country outside the Russian Federation, it is an encouraging example for the others especially the countries which started to feel of the injustice and the dishonor of their relations with Washington and envy Syria for its allies at their forefront the alliance of Damascus with Moscow, however the words of the Minister Lavrov affected badly these concepts and these standards.

Accurately, the Minister Lavrov was not felicitous, the correct is to say that the victory of Syria was not possible without the role played by Russia as the Iranian role and the role of Hezbollah, while the fall of Syria is something else and there was no way for predicting of it, especially because the year and the three months after the Russian military positioning in Syria were not for the defense, they witness by facts the transition from defense to attack according to the Syrian army on three temporal stages, the first is in the northern of Syria in the countryside of Aleppo and Latakia and the recapturing of tens of towns,  square kilometers and important sites by the Syrian army, it ended by the truce of February 2016, the second started in the stage of truce and ended with recapturing Palmyra from the hands of ISIS, while the third is in Autumn 2016 that ended with the liberation of Aleppo. Among them there was not any case of defense to protect the Syrian army and the Syrian state from a counterattack, but the counterattack which faced the Syrian army and its allies was in the countryside of Aleppo between the truce and the final attack on Aleppo. At that time Russia was standing apart away from presenting the support in harmony with the requirements of its negotiating role with Washington and Ankara hoping to reach to a political solution.

The facts show that the real risks which  was exposed by Syria, its state, and its army were not on the eve of the Russian military positioning, which everyone knows that it came within the context of agreement on the transition from defense to attack among the Russian, Iranian, and the Syrian allies, having reached to an understanding on the Iranian nuclear program and the demise of the risks of the entry of the Americans into military adventure which have emerged with the arrival of the US fleets to the Mediterranean in Summer 2013. Syria decided to confront them being sufficient with the moral and the armament support of Russia within the application of the purchase agreement of qualitative Russian weapons in 2012. Moscow has blocked its implementation based on American and Israeli pressures and promises that ensure that Syria will not be exposed to the risk of attack. However Moscow has applied that agreement after the US threat of targeting Syria. So it stood a historic position that can be said that it prevented the exposure of Syria to the threat of war, this saying does not embarrass or disturb, and it does not lack the precision. Then was the political solution for the chemical weapon the outcome of the Syrian Russian announced stable and clear cooperation, where the Russian stability with Syria does not accept to be debated.

If we talk about the threat of the fall of Syria based on considering the fall of Damascus has this meaning, there are Syrian areas that will continue the fight and no one can predict of what will happen, and such of this threat was not known by the war on Syria especially before the Russian military positioning, but it can be recorded a historic moment in the war which was in Summer 2012, when Syria knew the two biggest attacks on its capital, the bombing of the headquarter of the National Security and the martyrdom of its military leaders in addition to the chaos on which those who organized the process have betted on its employing to overthrow the Syrian capital, but they failed, and after few days the attack which was waged by Al Nusra front on the headquarter of the Ministry of Defense and the Staff of the Syrian army in the heart of the capital and it has failed. The two attacks were coincided with military splits to weakening the army, most notably the escape of Manaf Talas, and political splits most notably the escape of Riad Hjab. However despite of that Damascus was not overthrown and it did not fell that it was threatened of fall.

If we assume the opposite facts that Syria was threatened to fall, then the talking about that is affecting the Syrians in the heart of their national feeling and undermining the cohesion of their emotional alliance with Russia, as it is undermining of the prestige of Russia as a country that considers its allies and wants to present different image of the concept of the superpower which was provided by America, which through its failure it paved the way for the presence of Moscow as an example which it perfected its presenting, but for these friendly bullets which affected Syria without the bad faith certainly, but did not hurt certainly, especially because their source is the minister whom we love and whom the Syrians love, remembering how everyone who loved Syria described him with eagle or a vulture in his defense Syria, and its rights, countering the aggression away from its dignity and the validity of its position. It was possible for the minister within his indication to the importance of the Russian military role to be sufficient by saying that frustrating the hopes of the terrorists by making Syria in its geographical position a shelter and a base for launching has formed an unforgettable Russian contribution, that will be written by history through keeping the international security and peace. So it is enough to imagine the situation without the intervention of Russia and leaving Syria a base of attracting the terrorists from all over the world coming to it amateur individual but leaving it professional and organized.

1. Excellency the Minister Sergei Lavrov; with all the love, your words were not felicitous and have caused hurt without reason; they were as bullets that did not target any enemy target. They did not benefit Russia, but they harmed Syria. We will consider them friendly bullets that happen in wars.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,