Washington: Is the protection of Israel from Hezbollah by the remaining of ISIS?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Perhaps it is one of the strangest and the rudest conclusions which revealed by the US elites that surround the decision-making circuits in the administration of the President Donald Trump, they were spread on the sites of the studies-centers as summaries of research workshops, then in the newspapers as conclusions of probable risks, then they were leaked to the British newspapers and around which the analyses were published. The common between them is the sequence in dealing with the regional scene, which says that the moment of the bet on overthrowing Syria has gone forever and that the Russian and the Iranian presence put versus this goal a comprehensive war which America is unable to wage, and that the imposing of new equation in Syria controlled by America through the Kurdish forces in the north and the forces which locate in Jordan in the south, and sharing the Syrian-Iraqi borders has fallen too. The next battle with ISIS has become in Deir Al Zour not in Mosul or Raqqa, Moreover, the important presence will be for the Syrian- Russian-Iranian along with Hezbollah and the Popular Crowd. So the issue became to answer the question; who will inherit the legacy of ISIS?

The same logic which is not generalized yet says that only Syria and its war can say the final word in the paths of the US engagement with Russia about the international policies, and that the paths of the situation in the Middle East in which Turkey has become outside the US sponsorship, and where Israel and Saudi Arabia have become in a critical situation in front of any Iranian coming victory in Syria, moreover any growing of the force of Hezbollah and a liberation from the burdens of the fight against ISIS and the other formations says to Washington that it has to take its decision now not tomorrow. The Gulf crisis is becoming worse where Iran and Turkey get its outcomes. The wars in Syria and Iraq are approaching from their ends in favor of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. Furthermore the time in which Saudi Arabia and Israel supported by America will pay the big cost is approaching. The big decision is not in the end of ISIS, however in keeping the war open without winner or defeated. As ISIS is approaching from the defeat there must be strikes against Syria and its allies under the slogan of accusing of Chemical attack, or an expansion in the prohibited operations areas or threat to allied forces in order to weaken the progress fronts which are achieved by the Syrian army and its allies. The owners of these equations promote a statement “ if the threat does not prevent the Syrian army and the Popular crowd from continuing the progress towards the Syrian-Iraqi borders in Boukamal which considers a strategic detail in the US considerations, and if the Kurds are unable to prevent them in an appropriate time, through reaching the south of Deir Al Zour and Boukamal before the Syrian army, so why do we leave ISIS loses Boukamal in favor of our opponents? So let the equation be what is not lost by ISIS for our account and for the account of our allies, must not be fallen, so its remaining under the control of ISIS is better than its transferring to the opponents.

The same logic is spread and echoed by the US mass media and analyzed by the British mass media. Robert Fisk wrote in the “Independent” surprising, he wondered saying can we believe that after Washington and ISIS have become on one front practically are unable to win and do not want to be defeated, so one of them justifies the war of the other, it is a common war against Syria and its allies to prevent the unity of its territories and the seeking to turn it into a failed country, but the key word in this logic is the question posed by the enthusiastic friends of Israel in the US decision-making centers. What will Washington do when the war end in Syria after Hezbollah became on the southern borders of Lebanon and Syria equipped with the modern weapons and the military infrastructure, because any war with it will open the door for thousands of the fighters of the Poplar Crowd and Ansar Allah, therefore the diligence and the erosion will be an inevitable fate to Israel under strikes run by Hezbollah insider the occupied territories, where Israel will not have the opportunity to wage a war. The situation of Hamas will be different and the war of Yemen will in favor of the steadfastness of Ansar Allah. Saudi Arabia will be preoccupied with a deadly endless race with Qatar which is protected by Turkish-Iranian ceiling, and Europe will hasten to open up to a new Syria and to coordinate with it in security out of the obsession of the return of ” the lost sons” it aspires under Russian temptation to have a share in reconstruction and to accelerate the return of the displaced.

The US answer is not confusing but rather clear, the prevention of the progress of the Syrian army and its allies is the US priority within the basis of preventing any settlement in Geneva or Astana, and the prevention of a decisive victory of the Syrian army and its allies on ISIS and the rest of the armed groups in the south and north, putting all these please, from the threat of using the chemical weapons to the threat of not entering banned zones towards the threat of not colliding with the allied forces of the Americans and those work under their protection.

The decision of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah is to raise the level of confrontation to overthrow this new episode from the scandal of the war with ISIS and the winning on terrorism, whatever the cost is, and putting Washington in front of the difficult option; either to accept the rules of engagement in organizing the war on terrorism, or the comprehensive confrontation.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,