Astana is the dilemma of whom? And the powerful card of whom?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Turks have arranged their cards before going to Astana on the political data basis that is ready to be accepted by the announcement of the willingness to participate with Russia and Iran in the war on terrorism including Al Nusra front, and the agreement with Iran on restricting the auspices of the understandings with Russia as an acceptable mediator by everyone, after it was notified the refusal of Syria of Ankara as a mediator, and after it was notified the refusal of the militants of Iran as a mediator. Ankara has left the political ceiling of the Syrian settlement for the stage of the political talks which it is supposed that Astana will pave the way for it, preparing it for the next phase. Astana is interested in ceasing –fire, so the Turks have prepared a project for Astana entitled guarantees of ceasing –fire and the sanctions on who violates it, in addition to the procedures to verify the compliance with it.

In return, Syria has arranged its cards on the basis that it will be with its Russian ally in one trench and one goal, and as long as Moscow considers the available opportunity for the transition of Turkey from position to another in the light of the victories of Aleppo and the change of the balances of the international and regional forces, after the fall of the bet on the winning of Hillary Clinton to continue the war on Syria under US support and the instability of the Saudi position in the region, so there is no objection for Syria to test the opportunity, as long as the opportunity affects the armed groups which work under the Turkish mantle and their positioning is outside the coordination with Al Nusra front. Moreover, there is no objection from putting a test for these groups that equals their position in the process, the Syrian cards were arranged to serve achieving the test and grants Moscow the opportunity of assessment and the moving in the light of the reactions and how to interact with these tests.

Iran and Hezbollah are supportive forces to the Syrian movement which aims to reveal the Turkish intentions as well as putting the commitments of Turkey on the behalf of its groups in front of these groups in a clearer unambiguous way. The Syrian cards are arranged in a way that says: let us not manipulate in the terminology, if some see the sitting on the negotiating table requires changing the characteristics to say that we did not accept to sit with an occupier and a terrorist, so we will change this equation and say: yes we are sitting with an occupier, but he remains an occupier till this characteristic is denied from him, we are sitting with him to test the credibility of his intentions that he will change, so we will describe him as a force of occupation, as we will say to the terrorist, yes you are a terrorist, we sit with him to know the credibility of what was said about his intention to change. The Turkish is an occupier and the participated factions as terrorist till the contrary is proved, from here we will start.

Among the cards there was welcoming of any attempt to resolve with Al Nusra Front and the positioning on its classification as terrorism. But Turkey and the participated factions have to explain with derails the answer of the question entitled with board red line what are your procedures to translate this classification? They must separate between the Turkish answer and the militants’ answer. Simply the Ambassador Bashar Al-Jaafari presented this question and said give us your written answers in tomorrow’s session. But they returned to say confusedly as their

cards said about the priority of ensuring ceasing-fire. Syria has arranged its cards explaining elaborately the importance of ceasing –fire and its welcoming of the procedures to ensure it and the verification of the compliance with its requirements and determine its violations. But the written question here is about the maps, would you please let your military experts determine the sites for us which you do not share with Al Nusra in order to include them with ceasing-fire after checking and getting the correctness of the information from the three sponsors, each area which is fully under the control of those who are around this table , they can only form a delegation to visit it safely to check its conditions, but when the Turks started to sweat and their armed groups started to get confused, the Ambassador Al-Jaafari asked whether is it possible to have the maps on the next day before the closing secession and to be ratified from the sponsors, they became more confused.

Among the Syrian cards there is an “innocent” question for every participant whether host or guests, sponsors or participants; are we ensure cease-fire as a truce between fighters who want to return back to war, or who are preparing themselves to go to peace?. In the first part, Syria is not tired from the war to stop it in preparation to resume it, and it will not grant the one who wants the truce to return to the war what he wants , so is cease-fire a step towards the peace?, if the answer is yes as it is supposed to be, so what will be the road map of the transition from cease-fire to the peace talks?, and how long the cease-fire will take before this transition?, does the ambiguous of the deadline mean the intentions of some parties of turning the cease-fire into a truce that paves the way for a new round of war?. Here the silence prevailed, but there was a completion; then write down a supposed deadline, one month, two months, three months or a political deadline or say till the position of the new US administration becomes clear and its intentions towards continuing the war on Syria or towards the bilateral relationships with the partners of the war on Syria.

The Turks and their groups have got angry before they calmed down and discovered that the margins of the maneuver is getting narrow and they have to choose between the return with fragile truce which may fall at any time where Idlib as Aleppo will be recaptured by the Syrian army before knowing the US position or to proceed forward and fill the spaces in the cards and the maps for which Al-Jaafari has invited them to present before the end of the conference

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,