Do we have to choose between Aoun & Franjieh?
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Some components of the 8th of March team tend to adopt one of two calls, the first one is based on considering the equal respect and the appreciation of the two Christian leaders the General Michael Aoun and the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh, require the admission in favor of Franjieh who has been granted an opportunity more than enough to enable the nomination of the General Aoun to reach the presidency, Franjieh has not behaved during the year and the two months as a qualified candidate to fill the presidential vacancy, but he behaved as one of the pillars of the electoral campaign to promote the candidate of the team to which he belongs, thus he behaved at the Christian level, despite that he is one of the four leaders whose advanced and referential status are recognized. He has done that despite the inconsistency with the General Aoun in many aspects, either concerning the governmental performance or the parliamentary one, or the escalation in raising the Christian title, or regarding the strained relationship of his Movement towards the current leader of the Free Patriotic Movement the Minister Gebbran Basil.The loyalty and the fidelity of Franjieh here are not faced with real denial, because first the presidential deadlock which hinders the arrival of the General Aoun is not a caused by the low effort and the lack of stability in the supportive team of the nomination of the General Aoun while Franjieh is in the heart of this team, second because Franjieh represents according to the national and the Christian constants which the General Aoun represents, an entrusted high-born pillar and an owner of the leadership which makes his arrival to presidency initially an achievement of the same goals of the nomination of the General Aoun, without denying the factional interests of the General Aoun and his movement and on which the understanding must be when the presidential option of Franjieh becomes present, knowing that its Franjieh’ s right according to the consideration that the four leaders are candidates to behave from the beginning inside the team of the allies and outside it according to the fact this team has equal candidates with equal opportunities and who gains the best opportunities must consider it a victory of his team and has to present the guarantees and the commitments to the other, and for those who accuse the nomination of Aoun and Franjieh of equality and do not choose, they are as if they contribute in betraying Franjieh.
The second call starts with accusing everyone who equals the nomination of the General Aoun with the Deputy Franjieh and calls to study the enlisted nomination as a settlement formula, as it is a betrayal of the General Aoun, this call is based on a reverse other equation its basis is that the matter is not the matter of the political path and the constants alone to be abbreviated in such a way but the issue is because the leader of the broader representation of Shiite and the leader of the broader representation of Sunnis are occupying the presidential centers which are related to their sects, so it is not possible for the ally to present his name as an alternative to prevent the Christian leader whose representation is the broadest from occupying the presidential vacancy which is related to the Christians, only if they consulted him and got his prior acceptance not only but also in condition this Christian leader whose representation is the broadest has nominated a candidate as a continuation of the same principle where the Prime Minister Al-Hariri can nominate the Prime Ministers Fouad Al-Siniora or Tammam Salam, otherwise to accept the nomination of the Christian ally despite he has the eligibility of nomination but he has given a leader of another sect the right which neither belongs to him nor belongs to the sect, by choosing the leader who represents the Christians in the presidency instead of them and on behalf of them. This is a reflection of marginalization even if the candidate here is an ally and has his merits. Second the public which the General Aoun has succeeded in conveying to it his regional choices and constants which are the constants and the choices of Franjieh originally is still sure of these choices and still has a high consideration of observing the credibility of the new alliances of Aoun with what he represents and what is deserved according to the sacrifices which he bears in return of these choices and constants, so it is not permissible to create this feeling of frustration at the public specially when this occurs in a way that seems as friendly bullets which the opponents use them to send a message to this public to make it understand that the General Aoun has committed a mistake in his choices and now he is paying the cost, Furthermore, the supportive of this opinion say that the rift has occurred and now it is expanding unless it is averted, and that the Christina mood in the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, and the Phalanges is meeting on the feeling of the concentration of marginalization and the tempering in the Christian rank and the Christian rights, in addition to the retreat of the major choices which the General has taken them to. Except for the position of Hezbollah for which the public is waiting eagerly and hopes and trusts in its persistence, the matters were much worse.
Simply the owners of the two opinions want to put us between two options either to be accused of the betrayal of the General Aoun or to be accused of betraying Franjieh, these two accusations are nervous and exciting for two enthusiastic supporters in the two teams, because what the General Aoun and Franjieh allow for themselves, then we have the right to ask for a similar, because neither the General Aoun has said negative speech about the nomination of Franjieh, but he just waits for putting his name officially, and Franjieh is still ensuring in every occasion that his candidate is still the General Aoun and his last speech” Do not worry as we were with you, we and the General Aoun will be with you this time” so why the others have to choose, to resolve, and to direct a call to one of the two leaders to withdraw his name from presenting as a presidential candidate?
The political realism requires to say that the team of 8th of March has two presidential candidates, but at the same time it requires to say that the arrival of one of them to the presidency is a victory of that team if he behaves well, but it will turn into a disaster against him if he failed to manage his affairs carefully, patiently, and under the responsibility. The politics is neither an art of managing the tactical alliances between strategic allies, nor an art of managing the tactical disagreements between strategic opponents, it is an art of managing the tactical disagreements between the strategic allies and an art of managing the tactical alliances between strategic opponents, this means according to the General Aoun the skill of managing this tactical disagreement with the strategic ally Franjieh, and according to Franjieh the two matters, it means managing the tactical disagreement with the strategic ally Aoun, and managing the tactical understanding with the strategic opponent Al-Hariri, thus any losing of the compass according to both of them means a comprehensive destruction in the team that is represented by the two leaders in the presidential election and a shift from the opportunity of great victory into resounding defeat.
The two leaders with the help of a mutual friend and a reliable ally which is Hezbollah and his Secretary-General Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah can formulate what is beyond the presidency, as long as what was agreed upon its title was the understanding on an integrated package which the implementation of its items starts with electing the agreed president, with the remain surely of the same law of parliamentary elections according to whoever will the agreed president, this requires identifying the terms of the package in addition the elections law, in case the General Aoun becomes a president or the Deputy Franjieh. After the achievement of the understanding upon the two packages among the leaders of the 8th of March, it will be presented to the team of 14th of March in order to choose.
Some will say that the option will be in favor of Franjieh with the corresponding package surely by the Prime Minister and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt but within this conclusion there is a big rashness, because if the election law which must be agreed upon by the parliamentary committee was resolved as an item in the comprehensive package, and it is resolved that without terminating the agreement, there will not be an election of a president as a mutual item in the two packages, then the accompanied package of electing Franjieh must include the demands of the General Aoun which compensates for his team his presence in the presidency with reference to his parliamentary and popular representation, it was possible to overlook it if he becomes a president. Reversely , the accompanying package of electing Aoun must include the guarantees to Franjieh and to his leadership, so can anyone be sure of whom he will choose, if the Prime Minister Al-Hariri has to choose between a package in which Franjieh is a president and includes amending the law of defense in a way which allows for recalling any retired officer of the reverse and appointing him as a commander of the army to ensure the appointing of the Brigadier Shamel Roukoz in the this position along with the Minister of Finance, and the Ministries of Energy and the Communications within a government of thirties where Aoun has ten ministers, and one portfolio for Franjieh’s movement, Reversely, a package that ensures the presidency of Aoun including the guarantees for Franjieh and concessions for these conditions by Aoun, thus the Orange Movement will have five portfolios not including Maronite sovereign bag because it will assigned to Franjieh which is the ministry of Interior along with the Ministries of education or the communications, while the Free Patriotic Movement will have service bags such as the Ministry of Work and the Ministry of Health where Roukoz will not be appointed in the package.
This is not an attempt for running away from the choices, but it is an attempt to say as a result of mismanaging, do not let the victory turns into a defeat entitled one of two bitter options, that bears the responsibility of the failure of an honorable settlement that takes the country out of the Presidential vacancy, or to move within a settlement that satisfies the opponent and looses the ally.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,