The skillfulness of the tactic: The armistice formulates a law for continuing the war not to stop it.

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is easy to answer with negation the question about the feasibility of the armistice in achieving the traditional goal for any armistice which is ceasing-fire, in the war in which Syria lives, it is easy to negate the opportunity of achieving this goal, just for the sake that the two parties which wage the war on one hand against the Syrian army and its allies on the other hand have been excluded of the armistice’ s procedures, these two parties are surely ISIS organization and Al-Nusra Front, thus the question becomes legitimate about the justification of this armistice and its goals.

The war in Syria has passed into four stages to determine its priority among the concerned international and regional forces, Syria and its allies at their forefront Russia and Iran have succeeded during them from turning the field victories into political transformations, by transferring the campaign which is led by Washington and which forms the owner of the war-decision, from the stage of denying the presence of terrorism and considering the priority in overthrowing the regime and its president into the stage of the recognition of the danger of terrorism and the talking about the non-legitimacy of the regime and its president in the partnership in the war on terrorism, thus considering the abandonment of the president and his departure a condition to win in this war, moreover making the priority for a moderate armed opposition that fights the terrorism and the regime together, towards a third stage in which they presented Al-Nusra Front as an indispensable moderate force in the political process as a condition in wining on the terrorism that is represented by ISIS. The allies of Washington from Turkey to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Qatar accompanied with the American commanders headed by the Head of the CIA the General David Petraeus  have tried to save Al-Nusra front and making it a backbone for the team which must have an understanding with, in order to provide the requirements of wining in the war on ISIS and the regime together, provided that the political process will allow some figures of the regime to participate in the transitional governing body where there is no place for the Syrian President, and which is supposed to take over the responsibility of his powers after his stepping down. After fierce wars the third stage has fallen, and a new phase has been born after the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program and after the military Russian positioning and its title becomes the priority of the war on terrorism, and a political process through which the Syrians will decide at its end through elections the fate of the presidency, as stated in the resolution 2254 which is issued by the Security Council, while the fourth stage remained gray with the absence of two determinations; who will represent the opposition and what are the terrorist organizations so that led to the failure of Geneva III.

The allies of Washington especially the Turkish, the Saudi, and the Israeli remain betting on neutralizing Al-Nusra Front of the terrorism lists, or facilitating any procedures against it if it classified as terrorism because it is the striking force which prevails in most of the fighting fronts against the Syrian country, and under its mantle the organizations which affiliated to  Washington’ allies hide under the name of the moderate opposition which claims a huge presence, thus the war lost between a war that is waged by the country against the terrorism and a war that is waged by the opposition against the country. Washington remains escaping from an accurate classification of the terrorist organizations including the allies of its allies, it escapes from imposing standards for forming the opposition delegation according to the UN resolution, taking into account its allies and the avoidance of their confrontation. Furthermore, the military resolution of the Syrian army becomes with a Russian air coverage in the northern of Syria the only way to impose a new equation, since it threatens the Turkish presence in Syria and affects the bilateral ISIS and Al-Nusra and who is following them,  so Washington  becomes concerned in the negotiation on a formulation that sets a law for the war, the Russian Syrian title becomes ready, the armistice’s tactic.

The Syrian armistice tactic; the starting of the fifth phase formulates a reverse equation of what is usually settled, the armistice is an offer that is presented by Russia, Syria, and the allies to the armed groups which claim their belonging to the title of the opposition and an acceptance of the political process under the slogan of the priority of the war on terrorism, its title now is restricting the war to ISIS and Al-Nusra, and giving the other armed groups the opportunity of the choice between joining the campaign of ISIS and Al-Nusra, or joining the campaign of the beneficiaries of the armistice, this alone will ensure sorting the standards of the terrorist organizations to classify themselves by themselves on one hand, and will provide the opportunity for an international legitimacy that comes first from the common American signing with Russia on the initiative of the armistice and then the resolution which was issued by the International Security Council of approving the armistice and ratification of its conditions in the war which Syria, Russia and the allies wage against ISIS and Al-Nusra, those who occupy most of the Syrian geography which is aimed to be liberated, thus the armed groups are dividing immediately between who announces to be under the wing of Al-Nusa, and who decided to benefit  from the consequences of the armistice as the beginning of a track that will make him a part of the dynamism that is separated of Al-Nusra which decided to deal with the participants in the armistice as enemies, this is in order to involve him gradually in a context which if he wants to continue within the equation of the cooperation with the Syrian country  will make him within the settlement, or to join the terrorism’s ranks and bearing the consequences in case he cannot bear the burden and the implications of the new phase and its requirements.

The armistice puts the law of war, it arranges the opposite fronts of the Syrian country, and simplifies its political mechanism, so it grants its war an international legitimacy, and through this legitimacy and its coverage it gets rid strongly of the most dangerous forces in the history of the war on Syria which was represented and now it is represented by Al-Nusra Front, in addition to  the size and the quality of the bets which based on it and the parties of these bets, it opens the door for a political process in which the opposition is represented by the a delegation that includes the involved groups in the track of the armistice, at their forefront the Kurdish protection committees which are no longer possible to alienate them within the military geography imposed in the Northern of Syria, thus it became resolved that the political process has one track it is the forming of a government that leads the war on ISIS and Al-Nusra and whom affiliating under them, it paves the way for elections through which the Syrians decide who will rule the institutions in their country.

The skillfulness of tactic is in an armistice which puts a law of war to continue it not to stop it.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,